The Maldives often conjures up images of cocktails on pristine white beaches with gently swaying palm trees. Geopolitical ideas rarely appear. This week, however, they came to the fore as President Mohamed Muizou’s People’s National Congress won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, taking more than two-thirds of the seats.
The victory could help Muizu, who takes office in November, change the country’s foreign policy. He seeks to fulfill an election promise to reorient the archipelago away from India, the Maldives’ traditionally closest regional economic and security partner, and to strengthen cooperation with China.
Both India and China are interested in maintaining a base in the Maldives, which is close to several important shipping lanes and could play an important role in wider regional conflicts. Both countries have invested in infrastructure but have not announced the conditions for most deals. Historically, India has had the upper hand. But China has stepped up its efforts. The Maldives currently owes China about $1.3 billion, accounting for 19% of its total debt, while India’s debt is less than one-tenth.
Muizou claimed that his foreign policy was only “pro-Maldives” and not pro- or anti-China or India. However, he won last year’s presidential election on an “India out” platform. He promised to eliminate India’s small military presence on the atolls and attract more investment from China. India’s small military presence consists of dozens of soldiers flying rescue helicopters donated by India. After taking office, he eschewed the tradition upheld by his predecessors, who made their first foreign visits to Delhi. Instead, he traveled first to Türkiye and then to the United Arab Emirates. In January, he paid a five-day state visit to China, where he met President Xi Jinping and signed a series of cooperation agreements. He is yet to visit India.
This focus is already evident in tourism, which accounts for almost all of the Maldives’ $7 billion economy (a small amount comes from the tuna trade). Until last year, Indians were the largest group of tourists, with 210,000 visitors expected in 2023, accounting for more than 11% of the total. In the first quarter of this year, the number of Indian tourists dropped to 34,847, compared with 56,208 in the same period last year. The drop may be linked to boycott calls from India in January after three junior ministers in Muizhu made what were seen as derogatory remarks about Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the tourism potential of India’s beaches. Chinese tourists made up for the shortfall: 67,399 arrived in the past three months, up from 17,691 in the same period last year.
Yet Muizu is unlikely to make a clean break with India. The withdrawal of Indian troops from the islands is expected to be completed in the coming weeks. But they are likely to be replaced by civilian staff. India has not suspended infrastructure investment in the country, nor has Muizu asked it to do so. The two countries continue to discuss how to expand economic cooperation. Mr. Muyizu seems to realize that for a small country, two big friends are better than one.
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