RBI Monetary Policy Committee may soften stance with lower rate hike amid easing inflation – know what experts say

Many analysts predict that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to soften its stance with respect to the key rate hike decision, which is to be revealed on December 7, 2022. The bank will change its stance from accommodative to neutral.

The bi-monthly policy meeting of the RBI, chaired by Governor Shaktikanta Das, is underway between December 5-7, 2022, and the committee is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday. The MPC is on a price hike spree from May 2022 owing to higher inflation due to rise in commodity prices.

Deepak Agarwal, chief investment officer, debt funds, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company expects a hike of 35 basis points (bps) in the December meeting, as well as a change in the stance of the MPC from ‘return to housing’ to ‘neutral’ with further action indicated. data dependent.

Similarly, Anand Neotia, Fund Manager – Trust Mutual Funds said, the market is expecting a slightly softer stance from the MPC with a rate hike of 35 bps on widely discounted yields.

In a commentary, Neotia said the MPC would, however, be mindful of risks arising from global volatility and fears of a recession in advanced economies.

Radhavi Deshpande, joint president and chief investment officer, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance, said inflation is showing signs of pick-up, driven by a fall in commodity prices amid a global growth slowdown.

“Hence, the focus of the MPC may be to assess the lagged impact of past policy actions and expect a 25 bps more data-dependent stance in the coming policy,” Deshpande said in his note.

Churchill Bhatt, Executive Vice President and Debt Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance said, “We are seeing early signs of inflation peaking due to the sharp monetary tightening in the recent past. Since monetary policy operates with a lag However, the Committee would like to take a breather in its fight against inflation to assess the impact of past policy actions.

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Real GDP (gross domestic product) contracted 6.3 per cent in the July-September quarter of this fiscal and 9.7 per cent in April-September of FY23. Agarwal said that with the full-year forecast for FY23 growth hovering around 7 per cent, the second half GDP for FY23 could be in the range of 4.25-4.5 per cent.

Growth in the second half will be supported after government spending eased in the first half, the analyst said, adding that the recent fall in crude oil prices and a fall in inflation expectations will boost private consumption, supporting growth. Will get

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