The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday that El Niño is not gradually weakening but will continue to affect global climate in the coming months.
Although El Niño is now weakening, temperatures are expected to be above normal in nearly all land areas from March to May.
The latest update from WMO says there is about a 60% chance of El Niño continuing from March to May, and an 80% chance of neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) from April to June.
El Niño refers to ocean surface warming, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
La Niña is a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface water off the tropical west coast of South America.
It is also possible that La Niña conditions may develop later this year, but uncertainty remains on this front.
HT reported on February 4 that meteorologists said that India is likely to experience a short spring this year, followed by a harsh summer. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to gradually transition to a neutral state in June, making way for the outbreak of the La Niño phenomenon. . Nina September.
Also read: Warmer summer expected, ‘above normal’ number of heatwave days from March to May: IMD
“El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with ocean surface warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It affects weather in different parts of the world and storm patterns. But this is happening against a backdrop of human activity changing the climate,” the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday.
“New monthly temperature records have been set every month since June 2023, with 2023 being the hottest year on record to date. El Niño is driving these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases There is no doubt the culprit. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño. But sea surface temperatures have continued to be unusually high in other parts of the world over the past 10 months. Sea surface temperatures in January 2024 were the highest on record for January so far The highest temperatures since. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Niño alone,” said Celeste Solo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization.
El Niño typically has its greatest impact on global climate in the second year of its development (i.e. 2024).
According to the Global Seasonal Climate Update, the World Meteorological Organization predicts that sea surface temperatures will be above normal in most of the world’s oceans over the next three months, leading to above-normal temperatures in almost all land areas and affecting regional rainfall patterns.
The current El Niño occurs in June 2023 and is strongest between November and January.
Its peak was about 2°C warmer than the 1991 to 2020 average sea surface temperature in the eastern and central tropical Pacific.
This makes it one of the five strongest El Niño events on record, although it was weaker than the events of 1997/98 and 2015/2016.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said the summer months from March to May are likely to be hotter than usual in most parts of the country, while also predicting that El Niño will persist during this period, which in turn may lead to El Niño continue living. Leading to an increase in heat wave days.
However, some parts of the north-western region including Delhi are likely to witness normal or below-normal night minimum temperatures and daytime maximum temperatures, especially in the first 15 days of March, with a series of western disturbances expected to Brings rain.
The IMD usually issues its summer forecast in the first week of March each year, with temperatures in the following 12 weeks having a major impact on public health and agriculture.
For example, unusually hot weather or excessive rainfall in March could damage some winter crops that are about to be harvested in April and May.